Slowing inflation good news, though confidence still low

Inflation makes the cost of doing business more expensive and inhibits investment, which is why the recent data from Statistics Canada is welcome news.

The Consumer Price Index rose 6.3% year over year in December, down from a 6.8% increase in November. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.3% on a yearly basis in December, compared to 5.4% in November.

Canadian Chamber Economist Mahmoud Khairy said the drop might not be enough to keep the Bank of Canada from one more increase to interest rates later this month. Khairy expects rates to rise by a quarter point, to 4.5%, and end the tightening cycle which began last March.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada released its latest Business Outlook Survey on Monday. It found that the rise in interest has dampened sales forecasts as customers have less spending money available after paying for necessities. The Bank also released its survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday, showing that many people still fear a recession despite stronger than expected job numbers.

Demand remains strong for commercial real estate

The increase in assessed value of properties doesn’t only apply to residential real estate. There is ongoing demand for industrial and commercial properties as well, reports the Times Colonist.
 
With industrial vacancy at a record low of 0.2%, the demand for working properties will continue to be strong, even as high interest rates make it more challenging to attract investment.

Jobless rate down as fewer seek work

It’s a tough time to be an economist. The jump in inflation experienced last year spurred the Bank of Canada to spike interest rates with the goal of cooling the economy and perhaps triggering a recession. However, Statistics Canada shows that 104,000 jobs were added in December — much higher than most experts had forecast.
 
In Greater Victoria, the numbers also offer a mixed message as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% in December. However, the region’s available labour force was down from November while overall population increased.
 
Perhaps we’ll have more clarity when the consumer price index for December is announced on Jan. 17. The Bank of Canada will make an announcement on its interest rate on Jan. 25.

Island Health seeks help to fight toxic drug crisis

How can business help solve complex challenges regarding addiction and toxic drugs in our communities? The opioid crisis has caused immeasurable distress in many people’s lives, affecting families, colleagues and others close to us at an unprecedented scale.
 
Island Health hopes that innovation, which the private sector is renowned for, can make a difference. The health authority is is seeking Expressions of Interest from not-for-profit organizations, local governments, Indigenous Nations and local businesses. A $1 million fund has been set up to provide grants of up to $50,000 for projects and initiatives that:

  • Improve workplace resilience and individual safety related to toxic drugs
  • Improve youth resilience.

 
Details on the grants, including how to apply are available at: New Resilience and Safety Grants – Island Health

Ban on foreign purchases of homes takes effect

The federal ban on foreign purchases of Canadian homes is now in effect. The intent of the regulation is to free up housing to meet the intense demand that has seen real estate prices skyrocket over the past decade. However, just how effective the rule will be remains to be seen as foreign buyers account for less than 0.5% of real estate sales in BC.
 
The prohibition isn’t permanent. It’s set to run for two years and does not apply to non-Canadians who are looking to rent. The Act defines residential property as buildings with fewer than four homes, as well as parts of buildings like a semi-detached house or a condominium unit. The law does not prohibit the purchase of larger buildings with multiple units.
 
Anyone convicted of violating the Act faces a $10,000 fine, and non-Canadians could face a court order to sell the house.

Happy Holidays and see you in the New Year!

On behalf of the Chamber board, and everyone on the Chamber team, I want to personally extend a warm holiday greeting to all of our members and community partners.

The resilience and leadership shown by our business community continues to inspire me as we seek solutions to the challenges of our times. Our mission remains relevant. We Work Together to Build Good Business and Great Community for All.

In 2023, The Chamber celebrates our 160th anniversary and we are committed to creating connections through events and other initiatives. We are grateful for the leadership and compassion of our Chamber Champions. We are ready to roll up our sleeves to make life a little better in Greater Victoria. And we promise to do more to ensure we are inclusive and provide space for people who may not have felt welcomed in the past.

There is work to do, and we are eager to get started. But for the next few weeks, I hope all of you can join us in taking some time to reflect, recharge and reset for the year ahead.

This is our final newsletter for 2022. We’ll be back in January with a full list of upcoming events and the latest news about Chamber members and information important to business.
 
Take care of yourself and your families.

Wishing all peace on earth these holidays.

Bruce Williams
CEO, Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce
Please note that The Chamber will be taking a break from Dec. 23 to Jan. 1. Wishing you a safe and happy holiday!

Bank signals that rate hikes could be ending

Could this be the end of interest rate increases? The Bank of Canada increased its rate today to 4¼%, but softened the language it uses around future increases.
 
A statement from the bank said the bottlenecks that had been affecting global supply chains are loosening.
 
The Consumer Price Index was at 6.9% in October, though core inflation was 5% — much closer to the bank’s target of 2%.
 
“Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum,” the bank stated. “However, inflation is still too high. The longer consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.”
 
Make sure to consult with your preferred financial and mortgage advisors —The Chamber’s Member Directory is a great place to find experts who can help you make your business thrive.

Season’s greetings and sustainable shopping

This holiday season, be sure to shop locally and sustainably! Follow these Chamber tips to help your local community and the earth as a whole.

Increased focus on Indo-Pacific trade welcomed

The federal government released Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy this week, providing a guideline for future engagement with this massive economic region. The Canadian Chamber welcomed the news.

“In addition to increasing our presence in the region, much of the important work that needs to be done is here at home,” Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s President and CEO Perrin Beatty said. “Any successful strategy must give an enhanced priority to building the trade-enhancing infrastructure that is needed to significantly increase our exports. Additionally, the rapidly-growing communities of Canadians who trace their roots to the region provide a much-underutilized source of people who speak the languages, understand the cultures and have networks of family and friends in the region and who could help to strengthen our trade and investment ties.”

The Indo-Pacific accounts for 65% of the world’s population and is Canada’s second-largest regional export market, after the United States, with annual two-way trade valued at $226 billion.

Almost 20% of Canadians have family ties in the Indo-Pacific, which also provides 60% of Canada’s international students.

Businesses seek certainty as inflation plateaus

Inflation watchers breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday morning as the latest report on Canada’s Consumer Price Index shows the rate appears to have stalled out at 6.9%. While the number is still more than double the Bank of Canada’s target rate, the fact it no longer seems to be increasing is reason for optimism. High inflation creates uncertainty for businesses facing difficult decisions around how they will increase prices and raise wages.

Inflation jumped to 8.1% in June — the highest it had been in decades — prompting the Bank of Canada to raise its interest rate target six times in an attempt to slow the economy.