Helping make sense of inflation/interest forecasts
Over the past two years, a new pastime emerged called “what will the Bank of Canada do next?” When inflation began surging in 2021, the era of low interest rates suddenly ended. Now, with inflation back to the 2% target and interest rates falling, understanding where the economy is going is still not a simple task.
The hitchhiker’s guide to BoC watching in this easing cycle is the cheeky title of a new report released today by CIBC senior economist Ali Jaffery.
In the update, Jaffery notes the different tactics used by the Bank of Canada compared to the US Federal Reserve to communicate their intent ahead of rate announcements. The strategies differ in how they spoon-feed market watchers, with the Canadian central bank preferring to let the data do the talking. This reflects the more cautious nature of Canadians, Jaffery says.
As for what to expect from the Bank of Canada at their next rate announcement on Dec. 11, most economists see the most recent statistics as a harbinger of another rate cut.
“With upcoming GDP data expected to show weak economic growth, a 0.5% rate cut (on Dec. 11) seems likely,” Canadian Chamber Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua says. “While some sticky inflation pressures are easing, even the Bank’s anticipated uptick in inflation won’t change the narrative. Q3 GDP probably won’t deliver the strength they’re hoping for, which reinforces the need to support businesses and growth.”
