Stormy seas for businesses right now but smoother sailing coming

Businesses in Canada aren’t feeling great about current conditions but many sense brighter times ahead. That was the finding of the latest Canadian Survey on Business Conditions by the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab.

“In fact, this is now the best showing for the ‘year-ahead’ question in the almost three years,” says Stephen Tapp, Chief Economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. “Interest rates are beginning to fall across the developed world, the Bank of Canada is increasingly winning the war against inflation, and businesses are expecting a soft landing, with employment growing modestly over the next three months. And while we have signs of good news, businesses remain worried about fragile supply chains due to ongoing labour disputes across Canada’s transportation network.”

Indigenous-owned firms in Canada stood out as particularly optimistic about their future business opportunities.

Inflation returns to target 2% opening door to rate cuts

With inflation finally — finally — back to 2% and the Bank of Canada signalling a new round of deep cuts to interest rates, there’s a growing sense of optimism among many business owners.

“I think we’re all a little weary of rising prices and the sense of uncertainty that has hung around the last few years,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “The latest economic signals are hopefully a sign that stability has returned and businesses can invest in their organizations with a more predictable outcome.”

Cheaper gas and clothing as well as lower mortgage costs have helped to stabilize inflation at 2% — the target rate that the Bank of Canada says indicates sustainable growth.

Meanwhile, the federal government continues to try and spur housing growth. New rules announced this week will make it easier for young Canadians to own their home.

The $1 million price cap for insured mortgages has been increased to $1.5 million, and more first-time homebuyers will be eligible for 30 year mortgage amortizations.

Both changes take effect Dec. 15.

 

Real estate summer slowdown typical for the season

Despite falling interest rates, Greater Victoria’s housing market slowed in August and the benchmark price for an “average” home in the region decreased.

A total of 545 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this August, down 16.5% from July. The benchmark value for a single family home in August was $1,287,400, down from July’s value of $1,296,100.

“The final month of the summer is generally a rather relaxed one in terms of real estate sales and listings,” 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone said. “Many folks pause their home shopping activities or pause their sales listing to make the most of other summer activities and vacations. It’s no surprise that sales this year were so close to the sales from 2023 and that listings declined slightly from the number we saw in July.”

Bank cuts rate again this morning; more cuts coming?

As expected, the Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4.25%.

The announcement, made this morning, reflects the consistent decline in inflation, which came in at 2.5% in July.

“With continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points,” the bank said in its statement. “Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up.”

The next rate announcement is Oct. 23, with another reduction expected.

Slowing inflation paves way for further interest rate cuts

The wind appears to be out of the sails of inflation, clearing the way for reduced borrowing costs later this year.

Statistics Canada reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% in July, the slowest pace since March 2021. Lower costs for phone services, computers and vehicles offset a slight increase in fuel prices.

“Businesses that have been wary of taking on debt will be a little more optimistic at the prospect of borrowing to invest in the growth of their operations,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “The economy needs that dynamic to become more productive, increase revenue and provide opportunities to incentivize staff with higher wages and workplace initiatives.”

Slowing inflation won’t bring back lower costs but it will give the Bank of Canada a clear signal to further reduce interest rates.

However, a looming rail strike could impact supply chains and lead to pressure on the price of goods.

In case you missed it yesterday, you can listen to Bruce Williams speaking about inflation and the rail strike on CBC Radio.

Bank of Canada cuts interest rates again, as expected

The Bank of Canada has further reduced its overnight rate.

The cut was widely expected by economists as inflation appears to be under control and heading back to the target 2% rate. The next opportunity to further reduce interest rates is in September.

The Bank also released its Business Outlook Survey and its Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations on July 15. Both reports found that public expectations for future inflation are in line with Bank forecasts.

Real estate market continues showing signs of calm

The region’s real estate market appears to have taken a deep breath in June, as overall sales were down 13.4% from May. The numbers reflect seasonal expectations.

“I think this is good news, as the more stable the market is, the more it supports both buyers and sellers,” Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone said in a media release. “If we continue to see seasonal norms in our market, the upcoming summer months will be slower and quieter than spring was, as consumer priorities shift to vacations and outdoor pursuits. If the pattern continues, we’ll likely see an increase in activity as fall nears.”

There were 3,460 active listings at the end of June, up 3.7 % from May.

June’s benchmark value in the Victoria Core was $1,295,500 for a single family home and $567,900 for a condo.

Inflation shows its stubborn side with bump in May

Inflation rose 2.9% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.7% rise in April.

The increase came as a surprise for many economists who are watching for the Consumer Price Index to return to the 2% target, which the Bank of Canada considers to be sustainable inflation.

Statistics Canada said May’s increase was caused by higher prices for services, specifically cellular services, rent and air fares.

“The increase in services inflation is not helpful, especially as wage growth is elevated. The risk of a strong rebound in the housing market hasn’t materialized yet, but slowing shelter inflation is welcome news,” Canadian Chamber Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “Our consumer spending tracker is showing growth presenting a risk that demand is more robust. Odds of a cut in July are lower and still depend on whether the economy is weaker than the Bank’s recent forecast. Governing Council continues to be heavily data dependent, and this reversal will support their restrictive bias. The Bank will want to take a slow and measured approach, especially with inflation accelerating.”

The Consumer Price Index for June will be released on July 16, ahead of the next interest rate decision on July 24.

Lessons of past can help us improve future economy

Canada’s economy made a significant shift last month when the Bank of Canada dropped its interest rate for the first time in four years. Now the Bank’s governor is saying he and his central bank peers are navigating a new world.

“We’ve also learned some lessons from the post-pandemic inflation, and we will take these to heart,” Tiff Macklem told the International Economic Forum of the Americas on June 12. “But the challenges of the future are rarely the same as those of the past. Supply shocks are more likely in the future. New technologies not only have the potential to increase prosperity but also to disrupt. Interest rates may be easing in many economies, but global interest rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. The new normal won’t be the old normal. And if we’re not going back, we’ll all need to adjust.”

Macklem said supply-side economics, inflation as a common enemy and public trust in the banking system are the biggest lessons learned from the past four years.

The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for July 24.

Bank of Canada drops interest rate for first time in four years

Finally. The weather forecast calls for clear skies and warm days this weekend, the HarbourCats have fireworks planned for Saturday night, after their homeopener on Friday — and the Bank of Canada has taken the initial step to reduce the pain of high interest rates.

For the first time since March 2020, the bank lowered its overnight rate. It’s now 4.75%, down from 5%, and expected to drop further in the months ahead.

“We’ve been hearing from members who have felt squeezed by the high rates and what that has meant for their customers who have been feeling squeezed themselves,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “No one wants inflation to return, but we’re hopeful this move by the bank marks a return to stability needed for businesses to make those investments that help them grow.”

The bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem, was careful not to promise future cuts, but the Conference Board of Canada stated that conditions are right for the rate to fall further.