Region’s unemployment up, but still lowest in Canada

Greater Victoria employers continue to face pressure from a tight labour market.

Our region’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9% in June, up from 3.7% in May.

Greater Victoria’s employment rate was 65.2% in June. Those numbers compare to national rates of 6.9% unemployment and 60.9% employment.

Our region consistently has among the lowest unemployment rates in the country, and The Chamber has called on the federal government to grant our region an exemption on the restrictions imposed last year to the Temporary Foreign Worker program.

Finding and Keeping workers has been cited as a top advocacy priority by Chamber members for almost a decade. And while the latest numbers show access to labour continues to be an issue, the national numbers do offer optimism for businesses facing the uncertainty of an ongoing tradewar with the US.

“Canada’s labour market remains strong and resilient despite tariffs and counter-tariff measures. The market shows signs of marginal improvement across many parameters, a result of trade-partner diversification,” Canadian Chamber economist Anupriya Gangopadhyay said. “Employment rose to its new peak for the year, especially in the manufacturing sector after consecutive declines. At present it is hard to gauge exactly when or if at all the impact of tariffs will break this momentum. But this outcome may nudge the Bank of Canada to deliver fewer than the two rate cuts in the remaining half of the year, as expected earlier.”

 

Sticky inflation means July interest rate cut unlikely

The latest inflation figures have dampened the chances that Canadians will get further debt relief this summer. The Consumer Price Index was 1.9% in June, up from 1.7% in May.

“Price pressures edged higher as goods inflation picked up again. While the jump was mostly brought on by base effects from gasoline prices, underlying inflation remains stubborn,” Canadian Chamber Principal Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “Seasonal factors — particularly in vehicle sales — also helped keep inflation higher. This will weigh heavily on the Bank of Canada, especially as retaliatory tariffs begin to feed through and businesses warn of rising consumer prices. Despite recent economic data presenting a weaker outlook, our call is for a hold on the policy rate at the next Bank of Canada meeting.”

The Bank of Canada, which aims to keep inflation about 2%, will hold its next interest rate announcement on July 30.

 

Tiresome tariff talk compounds flagging confidence

Summer is traditionally a time to slow down and reenergize, but the trade talk coming out of the Whitehouse feels like spam through a faulty email filter.

“Like most copy-and-paste chain-letters, this latest tariff threat from the US promises disaster if its warnings and predictions aren’t taken seriously. But it’s the senselessness of this tradewar that is the real tragedy,” Canadian Chamber President and CEO Candace Laing said. “Having spent months under on-again, off-again tariffs and threats, Canadians already know just how damaging this can be — both to our economy and the relationship we’ve enjoyed with our southern neighbour for decades.”

In Greater Victoria, Chamber Past Chair Kris Wirk told CHEK News that many members are already pivoting their business to other markets or services that avoid the US.

“The fact that there’s moving goal posts and moving deadlines makes it difficult for businesses,” Wirk said, noting many people are making changes to help weather the length of the current US administration’s time in office. “I think the past is a good indicator of the future so we may be in for a long four (or three-and-a-half) years.”

According to the Conference Board of Canada, the uncertainty is making businesses cautious during a season that typically sees growth. The Index of Business Confidence decreased by 1.5 points this quarter, falling to its lowest level outside of the pandemic.

“Over 40% of respondents cited weak market demand and government policies as the two leading factors holding back planned investment,” the Board said. “Until these challenges ease, business investment is expected to remain restrained.”

 

Chamber supports airport’s plan to grow business

The Victoria Airport Authority is hoping to speed up its growth as a major economic contributor to our region. In 2023, the airport released a Master Plan for the next 20 years. However, as passenger arrivals and departures surge, the airport says the time is now to invest in its future.

Airport Authority President and CEO Elizabeth Brown told CHEK News that June was 5% busier than the same month last year.

“That’s a significant amount of more passengers. We will exceed two million passengers this year,” Brown told CHEK. “We feel that currently this terminal is not equipped to be able to handle this passenger level that we have today. So we have to look at immediate solves and also long-term planning.”

Among the projects under consideration are expanded capacity for people waiting to board flights.

“Having the expansion to allow more growth in tourism, as well as for locals, is great for Greater Victoria’s economy,” Chamber CEO John Wilson told CHEK.

 

Strong start to summer for real estate market

The latest numbers offer more evidence Greater Victoria’s real estate sector has moved beyond the uncertainty that had disrupted markets over the past five years.

“Recent market trends suggest that we have finally transitioned from a pandemic-driven market to more conventional patterns,” Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Dirk VanderWal said. “We have experienced consecutive months of a healthy and balanced market that includes listing inventory levels we have not seen in a decade paired with steady sales. Despite economic uncertainties weighing on consumer confidence, Victoria continues to demonstrate resilient market conditions.”

VREB said a total of 761 properties sold in June, up 15.1% from June 2024.

“Noteworthy this past month is a large uptick in the number of condos sold,” VanderWal said. “It will be interesting to see if this continues through the summer and becomes a trend.”

The benchmark value for a single family home in June was $1,325,400, down from May’s value of $1,326,600. The benchmark value for a condominium in June was $562,800, down from the May value of $564,100.

Actions announced to help improve safety downtown

Over the past year, we’ve heard from more businesses demanding action on crime and distress outside their storefronts. Last week, the City of Victoria announced it was reallocating $10.35 million to address community safety.

“This is an issue that has been talked about for a long, long time and it’s at the point people are tired of talk,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “Increasing police presence is a good start and hopefully will result in immediate and noticeable relief for businesses suffering because of social disorder.”

The Chamber has worked patiently on long-term solutions, such as evidence-based support for people with mental health and addiction issues. We applaud work done by our community partners, while recognizing that even the providers of social services such as Our Place Society and promoters of downtown including the DVBA have said a new approach is needed.

One silver lining is news that downtown continues to serve as a beacon for entrepreneurs with 19 new stores recently opening.

“Downtown Victoria is a gem and absolutely vital to our region’s economy,” Williams said. “We know visitors continue to be dazzled by the charm of the area. At the same time, we also know that long-time businesses are feeling real pressure and more needs to be done to make downtown safer immediately and for future generations to come.”

Rifflandia teams up with Greater Victoria businesses

Greater Victoria’s preeminent festival experience celebrates its 15th anniversary this year, with four days of music and fun set for the end of summer.

Rifflandia will run Sept. 11–14, at Matullia Lands at Rock Bay (corner of Pembroke and Government streets).

“More than ever, people are looking for ways to connect, to share experiences, and to feel something real together — and that’s what Rifflandia is all about,” Rifflandia Entertainment Co. President and CEO Nick Blasko said. “We know a lot of people are feeling the pinch right now, so we’ve kept ticket prices at last year’s levels and packed in even more.”

The Chamber is once again partnering with Rifflandia to help build connections with our business community. The RiffSclusive Deals program is a promotional campaign connecting local brands with tens of thousands of music and culture fans from Aug. 1 to Sept. 14. Participating businesses are featured on Rifflandia’s festival website, direct-to-inbox newsletters and online engagement. Only 20 spots are available. Email Morgan Sutherland at morgan@rifflandia.com to learn more.

Rifflandia is also running its “Give Where You Riff” campaign, which includes Chamber members: DVBAVictoria Cool Aid SocietyVictoria Conservatory of MusicVictoria Hospitals FoundationVictoria Pride SocietyWomen in Need (WIN Resale Shops)Burnside Gorge Community Association and Victoria West Community Association.

The campaign will help those organizations by donating 15% of every ticket sold.

 

Inflation stays stable in May, reflecting slow economy

The Consumer Price Index rose 1.7% on a year-over-year basis in May, matching the 1.7% increase in April, Statistics Canada said.

Compared to the same month last year, slower paced increases to rent and a decline in travel tours put downward pressure on inflation this May.

“After last month’s uptick in core inflation some giveback was expected. The labour market remains soft and tepid domestic demand growth should keep a lid on inflationary pressures,” TD Director and Senior Economist Andrew Hencic said. “As has been the case this year, the outlook is heavily dependent on how trade negotiations evolve, but we believe that the soft economic backdrop should give the BoC space to deliver two more cuts this year.”

C-5 aims to rebuild Canada’s economic momentum

An economic evolution that the national chamber network has been working on for years is one step closer to reality this week. On June 23, the federal government passed legislation to vastly improve free trade and labour mobility between provinces.

Without this legislation, large-scale energy and infrastructure projects have routinely been delayed by regulatory gridlock, rising costs and political indecision.

“The Canadian Chamber of Commerce applauds the federal government for urgently introducing and passing Bill C-5 in the House of Commons,” Canadian Chamber Executive Vice President and Chief of Public Policy Matthew Holmes said, adding the ongoing tradewar with the US administration drove home the need to diversify. “We cannot have all our eggs in the United States economic basket any longer.”

Projects where fast-tracking has the broad support of impacted First Nations, Métis and Inuit communities should be the first to be considered.

“Canada’s business community firmly believes we can end project paralysis while working in collaboration with Indigenous rights holders and communities while maintaining world-class environmental standards,” Holmes said. “We know respect and partnership for shared prosperity are the path forward. The Canadian Chamber does not believe a major project is viable in the absence of clear community level support and expects Canada to meet its legal obligations to consult and cooperate with Indigenous peoples, per the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act adopted in 2021.”

Bill C-5 is just the first step. The onus is now on the federal government to deliver so that we can build economic momentum in Canada and show the world we’re serious about growth, energy and getting big things done.