Inflation adds uncertainty to future interest rate cuts

A surprising uptick in inflation has increased the focus on April 2, when the world is expected to learn how the US administration will roll out tariffs aimed at changing the global economy.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% year over year in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada considers 2% its target for sustainable growth.

Some of the increase can be contributed to the end of the federal government’s GST holiday on Feb. 15. However, even categories not affected by the tax break rose more than expected.

The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is April 10. Currently, economists are calling for further cuts to the rate to spur the economy if tariffs are introduced on April 2. However, if Canada is spared from the threatened tariffs, the Bank is expected to hold to allow inflation to settle.