Surveys show long-range optimism in economy

On Monday, the Bank of Canada released its Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations as well as its Business Outlook Survey. Both are for the first quarter of 2023.
 
The surveys show that many Canadians are concerned about how high levels of government spending will impact inflation.
 
Consumers are optimistic that costs will come down eventually but are reducing their discretionary spending for the time being. The survey found that low unemployment was giving confidence to workers, though there was some concern about the quality of jobs related to the quantity available.
 
Businesses are planning for sales to grow at a slower pace than the exceptional growth many experienced in the past year. As supply chains continue to normalize, businesses said they expect the prices of their services and products to stabilize.
 
The Chamber is thrilled to welcome the Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor to Victoria on June 8 to deliver the bank’s next Economic Progress Report. See below for more information.

Minimum wage increasing for fed regulated sectors

​Building a more inclusive and diverse network of businesses will strengthen Canada’s economic resilience. On April 4-5, the federal Office of the Procurement Ombudsman hosts a virtual summit to raise awareness of the public and private sector programs that can help small businesses and businesses led by Indigenous Peoples, Black and racialized Canadians, women, Two-Spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, and additional sexually and gender diverse people (2SLGBTQI+) Canadians, persons with disabilities and other underrepresented groups access federal contracting opportunities.

Former Gov. Gen Adrienne Clarkson is the keynote speaker. Now in its fifth year, the summit teaches the practical skills needed to win federal contracts. It’s also a chance to build connections with people in government who can help your business. The two-day summit runs from 8 am to 1:30 pm, April 4-5.

The Chamber to host Bank of Canada on June 8

In the world of business, the work done by central banks is always fascinating.

“We know our members like to hear directly from important policy makers so we are thrilled to welcome the Bank of Canada‘s Deputy Governor to Victoria to deliver the bank’s next Economic Progress Report,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said.

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry will deliver the report at a Chamber Business Leaders Luncheon on June 8 at the Victoria Conference Centre. Beaudry will discuss recent developments in the Canadian economy and the implications for monetary policy.

The Bank of Canada is the nation’s central bank. Their main role is “to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” as defined in the Bank of Canada Act. Their main areas of responsibility are: Monetary policy, Financial systemCurrencyFunds management, and Retail payments supervision.

The Deputy Governor’s speech will be followed by a moderated Q&A.

Business Leaders Luncheon – Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada
Thurs., June 8, | 11:30 AM – 1 PM
Victoria Conference Centre – Carson Hall

RBC report on rental housing shows need for more

A report from RBC shows that Canada’s stock of rental housing boomed in 2022, but demand is expected to grow even faster. “Without a significant boost in rental stock, Canada’s rental housing gap could exceed 120,000 by 2026—quadrupling the current deficit,” the report says. “This will tip the housing market into a greater state of imbalance and drive the optimal vacancy rate of 3% even further out of reach.”

New rental housing is being absorbed by our growing population faster than homes can be built. The report points to increased in-migration and a shift to rental accommodation because of the higher costs of home-ownership.

“The best way to meet current and future demand, as well as provide stability (and hopefully greater affordability) in the rental market is to considerably grow the supply of purpose-built rentals.”

Federal budget sends mixed message to business

The federal government unveiled its 2023 Budget yesterday, offering mixed signals to the business community. The budget comes at a difficult time for economic forecasters. The pandemic is still affecting employers and businesses and global supply chains continue to face stress due to the Russian government’s war on Ukraine. With stubbornly high inflation, many people are struggling with affordability and uncertainty about how they can grow their business.

Yesterday’s budget committed the government to about $43 billion in new spending over six years, said Canadian Chamber Chief Economist Stephen Tapp.

“While there are many ways to break down these moves, I ‘follow the money’ to identify five big-ticket categories,” Tapp said, pointing to $31 billion for health care, $16 billion for tax credits aimed at spurring investment in a clean economy, and about $25 billion for benefit cheques and other new spending. Tapp also noted that new taxes to high-earners will raise about $14 billion while spending cuts will save another $13 billion.

The Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce has advocated for infrastructure projects in our region, including modernization of Belleville Terminal. It’s not clear yet if there is money in this budget for that.

“On the one hand, The Chamber is a huge proponent of shifting to a green economy and the opportunities that represents for our members. This budget will offer encouragement to chamber members at the leading edge of this shift,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said, adding that another positive highlight was a promise to lower credit card transaction fees for small businesses. The government says 90% of businesses that take credit cards will see fees go down by 27%.

Still to be determined is how government spending $2.5 billion on relief cheques for lower-income Canadians will affect inflation.

“On the one hand, businesses will be happy customers have a little more money to spend but will it mean costs keep going up? Time will tell,” Williams said.
“The rising cost of doing business is a major concern. Food prices are up, and life is getting more expensive for everyone. Inflation is a problem and higher interest rates have increased the cost of borrowing money, which reduces business investment.”

Residential construction shows signs of slow down

​A report by the Chartered Professional Accountants of BC says that high interest rates are slowing investment in much needed new housing in the province.

“High interest rates are expected to stay and the significant decline in building permits issued across Greater Victoria indicates building investment may weaken significantly in 2023,” LL Brougham Inc. president Lindalee Brougham said in a new release. “Given how important these investments are in terms of providing additional housing and services, and spurring economic growth, it is more important than ever that we foster an environment that attracts more capital to our region.”

A total of 4,787 housing units began construction in Greater Victoria in 2022, down from 4,809 in 2021. Last year was still higher than the average for 2016 to 2020, which was 3,555 units per year.

“Last year, housing activity was strongest in larger developments with many units. And with the high cost of land here, there is a need for density,” noted
Brougham, a Chamber Governor, who served as board chair in 2007. “Another positive investment trend was a strong level of major project construction.”

The estimated value of Greater Victoria’s major projects — those that cost more than $15 million — was $14 billion in Q3 2022, up from $13.9 billion in Q3 2021.

Housing help for CFB Esquimalt benefits our region

The Chamber applauds news of a Canadian Armed Forces housing benefit that will help make life a little more affordable for people stationed at CFB Esquimalt. With one of the higher costs of living in the country, Greater Victoria is a challenging region for employers looking to find and keep employees. This is amplified when people living in areas with lower housing costs are asked to move here for their job.

The Canadian Forces Housing Differential takes effect July 1 and replaces the current allowance for members of the military living in expensive communities. The new benefit is tied to income to help lower earning members.

The Chamber is also supportive of ongoing efforts to develop more housing for CFB Esquimalt members. The Department of National Defence has previously announced plans for an 84-unit apartment on the base.

“This is a great example of how non-market housing can help add homes to our region’s housing supply that are catered to the needs of a specific employer or sector,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “This will eventually allow for more market homes to be available to people in other industries.”

BC Budget 2024: Chamber set to continue advocacy

The Provincial Budget for 2023 was only recently announced but consultation for the 2024 is already underway. The Chamber has asked to meet in-person with the Select Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services, as we do every year.
 
Public hearings are anticipated to take place in late May and June. Chamber members with questions or comments on next year’s budget are encouraged to share with our team at communications@victoriachamber.ca.

Media launch helps kick off 48th Flower Count

The Pacific Ocean wields immense influence over the weather, regulating Greater Victoria’s famous mild climate and warming the air deep into Central Canada. It’s why our region is typically the first in the country to experience the signs of spring. The phenomenon gave rise 48 years ago to a tradition that continues to this day.
 
The 2023 Greater Victoria Flower Count — which officially begins today — kicked off on Monday with speeches on the immaculate front lawns of the Fairmont Empress Hotel.
 
Flower Count only lasts one week: March 8 – 15, so we invite you to get involved!
 
Count your blooms to make sure your municipality becomes this year’s Best Bloomin’ Community, and enter our social media contest and #humblebrag with a pic of local flowers. You may even win Afternoon Tea for two at the Fairmont Empress! See below for more information.
 
The event was well attended by local media. You can read their coverage here:

Picture

Destination Greater Victoria’s Paul Nursey, left, on the lawn of the Empress with Colwood Councillor Dave Grove, Fairmont Empress’s Victoria Dyson and Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce’s Bruce Williams.

Rising real estate market another sign of spring

Seeing tiny buds turn to bright blossoms is a sure sign of spring. Another, at least in Greater Victoria, is the growing buzz around the region’s real estate. Sales in February were up 65.5% from the month before — though still down from February 2022.
 
“The market is seeing some positive growth as we move into springtime, which is traditionally the busiest market for home sales,” Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol said in a media release. “Inventory levels are starting to increase, a welcome trend when compared to the record lows of last year. We’re also seeing a stabilization at some price points and properties that are priced in accordance with current market conditions are selling at a good pace.”
 
There were 1,809 active MLS listings for sale in Greater Victoria at the end of February. That’s up from 849 for the same period in 2022. The benchmark value of a single family home was $1.25 million in February, down from $1.32 million in February 2022. Benchmark value for a condo dropped from $580,900 to $568,200.