Global Uncertainty Archives - Victoria Chamber

Trump takes to social media to threaten huge tariffs

November 27, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Business And Economic Strength, Chamber Awareness, Fair Rules, Global Uncertainty, Government Federal, Government Provincial/by Jim Zeeben

There’s the economy, and then there’s the attention economy. The incoming US President has seized the spotlight with his comments on his Truth Social platform calling for a 25% tariff on products from Canada.

The damage such a move would do to the Canadian and US economies makes this pronouncement shocking, which is likely what Donald Trump intended.

Chamber Board Chair Kris Wirk spoke to CFAX this morning about the issue, noting that the uncertainty is not helpful regardless of whether any tariffs are introduced.

Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said it’s easy for Trump to be loud on social media, but there has already been a tremendous amount of work behind the scenes to mitigate the damage tariffs would cause.

“We need to remember that this is a public relations tactic and probably much different than what will occur in reality,” Williams said. “Our national Chamber network has built strong relationships with states along Canada’s border. Their leaders understand the trade relationship with Canada and its importance to American jobs, factories and consumers. They’ll bring a strong voice to any negotiations.”

Speaking of the Canadian Chamber, new President and CEO Candace Laing has issued a statement condemning any attempt to hurt Canada’s economy.

“Being America’s ‘nice neighbour’ won’t get us anywhere in this situation. President-elect Trump’s intention to impose 25% tariffs signals that the U.S.-Canada trade relationship is no longer about mutual benefit. To him, it’s about winners and losers—with Canada on the losing end,” Laing said. “We’re facing a significant shift in the relationship between long-standing allies. Canada’s signature approach needs to evolve: we must be prepared to take a couple of punches if we’re going to stake out our position. It’s time to trade ‘sorry’ for ‘sorry, not sorry.’”

Bomb cyclone provides reminder to be prepared

November 20, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Climate Change Solutions, Global Uncertainty/by Jim Zeeben

The bomb cyclone that swept through the region this week served as a good reminder to prepare for potential emergencies before winter. Coincidentally, so did the National Public Alerting System‘s test today (Nov. 20), which buzzed phones at 1:55 p.m.

You can prepare by making sure you have a plan for your business and your home, and that everyone knows what to do and where to find emergency kits. These should include non-perishable food, water and supplies to be self-sufficient for up to one week.

After a disaster-level event, your insurance provider can give you guidance on best practices for cleaning up and repairing damage.

In 2025, The Chamber plans to work with members, specifically smaller businesses, to help them build a crisis communication strategy. This will be a straightforward guide that can be consulted to help ensure you are prepared to communicate with internal and external stakeholders after an emergency. To learn more and help us develop this initiative, email communications@victoriachamber.ca.

Keeping an eye on AI to help business adopt it safely

November 13, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Chamber Awareness, Finding And Keeping Workers, Global Uncertainty, New And Established Businesses/by Jim Zeeben

The adoption of artificial intelligence into our daily routine has been profound. Maybe you use ChatGPT to build out tedious frameworks for standard documents or use Canva to create spectacular illustrated designs for marketing. The ease of integrating AI into our workflows makes it impossible to ignore. However, what price are we paying for these conveniences? The threats of AI are still vague. From lost income opportunities to humanity’s demise, there’s a massive gamut of possibilities.

A new organization was announced today to help Canada stay ahead of the AI revolution. The Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute has a $50 million budget over five years to help Canadians reap the benefits from AI while fighting misuses such as disinformation campaigns, cybersecurity breaches and election interference.

The Chamber will work to keep members apprised of the positives and potential negatives of AI. The national Chamber network’s Future of Artificial Intelligence Council works directly with government to advocate on behalf of business to profoundly increase economic productivity and growth.

Feds step in to end labour disputes at Canadian ports

November 13, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Fair Rules, Food Security, Global Uncertainty, Government Federal, Inflation And Rising Costs, Transportation Options/by Jim Zeeben

The Chamber was part of advocacy efforts that succeeded in ending the recent labour disputes that had shut down vital ports across Canada.

The Chamber was a signatory to a letter that went directly to federal Minister of Labour and Seniors Steven MacKinnon. That effort helped push the Canada Industrial Relations Board to announce on Tuesday that it will impose final binding arbitration to resolve labour disputes at ports in British Columbia, Montreal and Quebec.

This decision will swiftly end disruptions and resume port operations, while extending current collective agreements until new ones are finalized.

“As an Island economy, we need our supply chains to operate efficiently,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “Any disruptions can have critical impacts on businesses ability to plan with certainty.”

Supersized interest rate cut aims to spur economy

October 23, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Business And Economic Strength, Global Uncertainty, Inflation And Rising Costs/by Jim Zeeben

Does today’s news from the Bank of Canada mark the start of better times? Maybe.

There is certainly plenty of buzz surrounding this morning’s announcement that the policy interest rate has been cut by 0.5% to stand at 3.75%. It’s the biggest drop since 2020, back when the bank needed to reassure an economy frozen by fear in the early days of the pandemic.

To better understand today’s situation, the following post by RBC is helpful. Cutting Through Interest Rate Chatter: What Interest Rate Changes Really Mean for You offers a few ways to think about today’s news. The cut has potentially created a “sweet spot” for first-time home buyers. As more people decide the time is right to list their house, buyers might be able to take advantage of a lag in prices before they return to previous levels.

Today’s rate cut is also welcome news for homeowners needing to renew mortgages. The landscape looks much better than it did before the Bank started its series of four straight rate cuts. Variable mortgage holders will also feel immediate relief with more money staying in their pockets or going toward their mortgage’s principal.

And best of all, more rate cuts appear to be on the horizon. According to the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council, it will continue to lower the rate if the economy stays on its expected path.

Stormy seas for businesses right now but smoother sailing coming

September 18, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Business And Economic Strength, Global Uncertainty, Inflation And Rising Costs/by Jim Zeeben

Businesses in Canada aren’t feeling great about current conditions but many sense brighter times ahead. That was the finding of the latest Canadian Survey on Business Conditions by the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab.

“In fact, this is now the best showing for the ‘year-ahead’ question in the almost three years,” says Stephen Tapp, Chief Economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. “Interest rates are beginning to fall across the developed world, the Bank of Canada is increasingly winning the war against inflation, and businesses are expecting a soft landing, with employment growing modestly over the next three months. And while we have signs of good news, businesses remain worried about fragile supply chains due to ongoing labour disputes across Canada’s transportation network.”

Indigenous-owned firms in Canada stood out as particularly optimistic about their future business opportunities.

Slowing inflation paves way for further interest rate cuts

August 22, 2024/in BizNews This Week, Global Uncertainty, Inflation And Rising Costs/by Jim Zeeben

The wind appears to be out of the sails of inflation, clearing the way for reduced borrowing costs later this year.

Statistics Canada reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% in July, the slowest pace since March 2021. Lower costs for phone services, computers and vehicles offset a slight increase in fuel prices.

“Businesses that have been wary of taking on debt will be a little more optimistic at the prospect of borrowing to invest in the growth of their operations,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “The economy needs that dynamic to become more productive, increase revenue and provide opportunities to incentivize staff with higher wages and workplace initiatives.”

Slowing inflation won’t bring back lower costs but it will give the Bank of Canada a clear signal to further reduce interest rates.

However, a looming rail strike could impact supply chains and lead to pressure on the price of goods.

In case you missed it yesterday, you can listen to Bruce Williams speaking about inflation and the rail strike on CBC Radio.

Inflation shows its stubborn side with bump in May

June 26, 2024/in Business And Economic Strength, Global Uncertainty, Inflation And Rising Costs/by Jim Zeeben

Inflation rose 2.9% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.7% rise in April.

The increase came as a surprise for many economists who are watching for the Consumer Price Index to return to the 2% target, which the Bank of Canada considers to be sustainable inflation.

Statistics Canada said May’s increase was caused by higher prices for services, specifically cellular services, rent and air fares.

“The increase in services inflation is not helpful, especially as wage growth is elevated. The risk of a strong rebound in the housing market hasn’t materialized yet, but slowing shelter inflation is welcome news,” Canadian Chamber Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “Our consumer spending tracker is showing growth presenting a risk that demand is more robust. Odds of a cut in July are lower and still depend on whether the economy is weaker than the Bank’s recent forecast. Governing Council continues to be heavily data dependent, and this reversal will support their restrictive bias. The Bank will want to take a slow and measured approach, especially with inflation accelerating.”

The Consumer Price Index for June will be released on July 16, ahead of the next interest rate decision on July 24.

Lessons of past can help us improve future economy

June 19, 2024/in Business And Economic Strength, Global Uncertainty, Inflation And Rising Costs/by Jim Zeeben

Canada’s economy made a significant shift last month when the Bank of Canada dropped its interest rate for the first time in four years. Now the Bank’s governor is saying he and his central bank peers are navigating a new world.

“We’ve also learned some lessons from the post-pandemic inflation, and we will take these to heart,” Tiff Macklem told the International Economic Forum of the Americas on June 12. “But the challenges of the future are rarely the same as those of the past. Supply shocks are more likely in the future. New technologies not only have the potential to increase prosperity but also to disrupt. Interest rates may be easing in many economies, but global interest rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. The new normal won’t be the old normal. And if we’re not going back, we’ll all need to adjust.”

Macklem said supply-side economics, inflation as a common enemy and public trust in the banking system are the biggest lessons learned from the past four years.

The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for July 24.

Canadian business optimism improving, survey finds

June 12, 2024/in Business And Economic Strength, Chamber Awareness, Global Uncertainty/by Jim Zeeben

The Business Expectations Index has moved into positive territory for the first time in a year. The index rose 2.7 points in the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter, led by an improved outlook for sales.

Some of the key findings include:

Businesses expect employment to grow as labour market conditions continue to find a balance between supply and demand.
Eleven of 16 sectors are improving with finance and insurance leading the pack, followed by construction.
However, agriculture, information and culture, and transportation are contracting.
Firms with 1 to 4 employees say they are are stabilizing, though medium- and large-sized firms (100 or more employees) continue to be much more optimistic.
Among underrepresented groups, visible minorities are the most optimistic, while LGBTQ2+ and women business owners are more pessimistic.