Sticky inflation means July interest rate cut unlikely

The latest inflation figures have dampened the chances that Canadians will get further debt relief this summer. The Consumer Price Index was 1.9% in June, up from 1.7% in May.

“Price pressures edged higher as goods inflation picked up again. While the jump was mostly brought on by base effects from gasoline prices, underlying inflation remains stubborn,” Canadian Chamber Principal Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “Seasonal factors — particularly in vehicle sales — also helped keep inflation higher. This will weigh heavily on the Bank of Canada, especially as retaliatory tariffs begin to feed through and businesses warn of rising consumer prices. Despite recent economic data presenting a weaker outlook, our call is for a hold on the policy rate at the next Bank of Canada meeting.”

The Bank of Canada, which aims to keep inflation about 2%, will hold its next interest rate announcement on July 30.