Stats show borrowing costs reducing investment

The effect of high interest-rates is measurable, with Statistics Canada’s latest Survey on Business Conditions showing many businesses are challenged by increasing costs and reduced customer spending.

The Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab explores the stories behind the numbers, including an analysis by Chief Economist Stephen Tapp.

“Continuing cost pressures explain why firms’ pricing behaviour still hasn’t normalized yet, even though headline inflation has slowed,” Tapp said. “Thankfully, the labour market is loosening up, although there are still significant challenges in sectors such as health care, accommodation and food services, manufacturing and construction. Supply chains are also recovering from their peak difficulties of last year, but they too remain problematic for affected companies.”

CEBA extension does little for businesses in need

After reviewing the federal government’s announcement on Sept. 14 regarding changes to requirements for repayment of CEBA loans, the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce is joining our national chamber network as well as our many partner organizations to call for an extension to the repayment deadline while maintaining the forgivable portion.

Razor sharp margins and a steep increase in interest rates have created unfavorable conditions for doing business. The Chamber is calling for a two-year extension to give businesses and interest rates enough time to stabilize.

“Many organizations still need time, and extending the deadline for repayment of the loan is reasonable, however, that needs to be coupled with continuing to allow the forgivable portion of the loan,” Chamber Chair Kris Wirk said. “The reality facing many small businesses — especially those in hospitality, tourism and retail — is that they have a viable path to making a full recovery but it’s going to take longer than expected.”

Rent cap aims to keep units on the market for tenants

The provincial government has capped the allowable rent increase to 3.5% for 2024.

Landlords who plan to raise rent in 2024 will need to provide tenants with three months notice using the correct form and following specific rules.

BC’s Minister of Housing, Ravi Kahlon, said costs are increasing for landlords and tenants. The need for affordable housing well documented, but many property owners are facing higher costs for repairs, financing and maintenance. The province claims the 3,5% cap will keep people housed while making sure rental units stay on the market.

The rent increase cap does not apply to commercial tenancies, non-profit housing with rent geared to income, co-op housing and some assisted-living facilities.

Stats show housing supply down from a decade ago

The latest sales figures show a slight increase in the number of homes for sale, though the demand for housing continues to affect the cost of living in our region.

According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, there were 2,490 listings at the end of August. That’s up 2.9% from the previous month and higher than the 2,137 homes listed in August 2022.

“The focus in our market and by all levels of government needs to be on opening up more supply,” VREB chair Graden Sol said in a news release. “Our inventory levels, though up from last year, are still too low to support a well-balanced market. A decade ago, we saw over 5,000 active listings in August.”

Sol noted that many listings were for single family homes, which are at the top of the residential market.

“Missing middle homes, such as townhomes and condos represented only 37.1% of listings for sale,” Sol said. “Townhomes, which in my experience are what a lot of families hope to purchase, represented only 9.8% of the residential properties for sale. This imbalance in the mix of housing options means there is the potential for more price pressure on these types of properties because demand is concentrated at more attainable price points.”

The benchmark value for a single family home in August was $1,323,900. That ‘s up $5,100 from July but down $3,800 from last summer.

Bank of Canada hits pause on rates as economy slows

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it was holding its interest rate at 5%, as expected. The next announcement is Oct. 25.

The Bank’s Governing Council said there are signs that supply is catching up to demand, and it is still assessing how previous rate hikes are affecting the economy.

“However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed,” said the news release issued by the bank.

The pause comes as political pressure increases to stop raising rates, though the Bank has been clear it’s committed to restoring price stability for Canadians and does not make decisions based on government requests.

“I know a lot of our members are affected by increasing costs caused by inflation and higher interest rates,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “It’s not an easy time, but we’re also seeing investments in more efficient operations and a focus on sustainability that will make our community more resilient in the long run.”

Harbour Authority celebrates 10 millionth passengers

Two couples stepped off a cruise ship this morning at Ogden Point to a little more fanfare than they probably expected. The passengers were the 10 millionth to arrive via cruise ship, and were welcomed by City of Victoria mayor Marianne Alto and other local dignitaries.

“We’ve been married for 14 years, and we came on this trip to renew our vow,” Emma Lonergan, one of the lucky passengers, said in a new release from the Greater Victoria Harbour Authority. The first cruise ship passengers arrived in 1969.

“Cruise supports the region’s visitor economy and creates jobs that support Victoria’s economic recovery,” GVHA CEO Robert Lewis-Manning said. “Engineers, entrepreneurs, accountants, mechanics and others are employed due to cruise tourism in Victoria, with salaries totaling more than $40 million annually.”

The GVHA said cruise visitors and crew contribute $56 million annually to Greater Victoria’s economy, while cruise lines spend $84 million on warehousing, ship agents, repairs and maintenance, port fees and docking services.

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Lindsay Gaunt (Director of Cruise Development, GVHA); Robert Lewis-Manning (CEO, GVHA); passengers Ryan and Rebecca Fairchild; Darlene Hollstein (GM, Bay Centre & Destination Greater Victoria Board Chair); passengers Emma, Liam and Ava Lonergan; Marianne Alto (Victoria Mayor); Kevin Boag (Hotel General Manager, Queen Elizabeth, Cunard).

Inflation expectations add to economic uncertainty

Inflation is running hot in Canada, though the relationship between higher prices and the likelihood of the Bank of Canada raising rates is “complicated.” The rate was 3.3% in July compared to 2.8% in June. Some of the higher costs are directly related to interest rates, which make some mortgages and loans more expensive and impacts renters as well as homeowners. The summer heat also caused energy demand to soar, and the war in the Ukraine continues to impact food prices worldwide.

The Bank of Canada has been clear that tamping down inflation remains its priority. That means another raise in interest rates remains on the table next month. However, the Conference Board of Canada reports that inflation could be feeding on itself as consumers and businesses have come to expect prices to keep rising.

How is your organization dealing with cost uncertainty? Share your stories or advice for other businesses at communications@victoriachamber.ca.

Support the home team and enjoy great summer sports!

The forecast says Saturday will be  23 C and sunny — perfect to get to Wilson’s Group Stadium at Royal Athletic Park to watch the Victoria HarbourCats play for the WCL North Division title. The ‘Cats set a league record this season for most home victories and swept the Applesox this week to win their best-of-three semifinal series. The winner of Saturday’s game will play in the WCL Final on Monday.

“The baseball is fantastic and the atmosphere is just as amazing,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “The Chamber recently held a mixer at a game and it was a perfect evening and a great way to connect with our community.”

Another Greater Victoria team is also having a highlight season. Pacific FC is at the top of the table in the Canadian Premier League. The soccer squad plays Sunday at Starlight Stadium against Athletico Ottawa.

The Chamber’s Emerge Committee Connector on Sept. 8 will be held before Pacific FC’s game against Halifax. Register soon as this will sell out quickly!

Celebrating what makes British Columbia home

Take a moment this BC Day long-weekend and step into the exciting world of British Columbia, where history, diversity and community living are connected, creating vibrant experiences for all. On Aug. 7, let’s embark on a journey that celebrates what truly makes this province feel like home.
 
Let’s begin by honouring the rich heritage of First Nations, who have been the stewards of this land for generations. This is a time for reconciliation, where we stand together to support friends, neighbours, and community members, all working tirelessly to make BC the fantastic place it is today.
 
From the Songhees to the Malahat First Nations, let’s appreciate and embrace the incredible experiences Indigenous tourism businesses offer.
 
Our adventure doesn’t end there! Take the opportunity to immerse yourself in the vibrant culture and local shopping scene or seize the moment to embark on that long-awaited home project. And for the spontaneous folks, why not plan a thrilling last-minute getaway to discover the breathtaking natural beauty of the province?
 
As BC Day approaches, we wish you a relaxing day, a chance to appreciate the joy of being a part of this extraordinary province that we all call home.
 
Please note that The Chamber will be closed on Monday, Aug. 7 to celebrate BC Day.

GDP stays positive even as high rates remain

The Canadian economy continued to show resiliency this spring. Statistics Canada reports that Gross Domestic Product stayed in positive territory. The Bank of Canada will make its next interest rate announcement on Sept. 6.
 
Business leaders will be watching closely as high-interest rates used to fight inflation have a direct impact on the cost of investment. A Globe and Mail interview with CIBC World Markets’ deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal is a good read for insights to help cut through the confusing times. Tal said he thinks interest rates have peaked or are close to the peak. He added that conditions are right for rapid growth in business investment in 2025 as inflation subsides and productivity increases thanks to innovations such as AI.