Stagnant GDP as economy going through doldrums

Statistics Canada’s latest figures show the nation’s August GDP was lower than expected. Real gross domestic product was flat throughout the summer as inflation, international conflicts and climate events continue to drag down many industries. 

“The economy is clearly stagnating. With these numbers, you could make the argument that we’re in a technical recession, with the third and fourth quarters now expected to be essentially flat, and weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast released last week,” Canadian Chamber of Commerce Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “This economic weakness should put a lid on inflation pressures. But we’re dealing with a bit of a mirage, with GDP growth increasingly being fueled by a fast-growing population. That’s concealing a hard truth — that real GDP per person is falling, and poor productivity is expected going forward.”

Job postings must now include details about pay

Starting last week, all employers in BC will need to include salary or wage information on publicly posted jobs. BC’s new Pay Transparency Act takes affect Nov. 1.
The goal is to try to ensure all people are offered the same pay for the same work, and prohibits employers from asking prospective employees about how much they earned in the past. As well, employees can’t be punished for disclosing what they are being paid.
Large and medium-sized employers must also begin publicly posting reports about their gender-pay gap, based on a phased approach:

  • Nov. 1, 2023: BC Public Service Agency and Crown corporations and public agencies with more than 1,000 employees (ICBC, BC Hydro, WorkSafeBC, BC Housing, BC Lottery Corporation and BC Transit)
  • Nov. 1, 2024: all employers with 1,000 employees or more
  • Nov. 1, 2025: all employers with 300 employees or more
  • Nov. 1, 2026: all employers with 50 employees or more.

Thankful for good business, great community

Whether you’re looking to cook your own Thanksgiving meal, or prefer someone else do the work, Thanksgiving is the perfect time to enjoy great food and spend quality time with the people you love.

Take time this long-weekend to check out some of the exciting activities and venues across Greater Victoria. If you’re looking to unwind while staying close to home, or need a place for the in-laws to stay, check out the beautiful hotels Greater Victoria has to offer.

As the weather begins to cool, now is a great time to consider supporting one of Greater Victoria’s local non-profits.

The Chamber would like to wish you and your family a happy Thanksgiving!

The Chamber office will be closed Monday, Oct. 9.

Stats show borrowing costs reducing investment

The effect of high interest-rates is measurable, with Statistics Canada’s latest Survey on Business Conditions showing many businesses are challenged by increasing costs and reduced customer spending.

The Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab explores the stories behind the numbers, including an analysis by Chief Economist Stephen Tapp.

“Continuing cost pressures explain why firms’ pricing behaviour still hasn’t normalized yet, even though headline inflation has slowed,” Tapp said. “Thankfully, the labour market is loosening up, although there are still significant challenges in sectors such as health care, accommodation and food services, manufacturing and construction. Supply chains are also recovering from their peak difficulties of last year, but they too remain problematic for affected companies.”

CEBA extension does little for businesses in need

After reviewing the federal government’s announcement on Sept. 14 regarding changes to requirements for repayment of CEBA loans, the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce is joining our national chamber network as well as our many partner organizations to call for an extension to the repayment deadline while maintaining the forgivable portion.

Razor sharp margins and a steep increase in interest rates have created unfavorable conditions for doing business. The Chamber is calling for a two-year extension to give businesses and interest rates enough time to stabilize.

“Many organizations still need time, and extending the deadline for repayment of the loan is reasonable, however, that needs to be coupled with continuing to allow the forgivable portion of the loan,” Chamber Chair Kris Wirk said. “The reality facing many small businesses — especially those in hospitality, tourism and retail — is that they have a viable path to making a full recovery but it’s going to take longer than expected.”

Rent cap aims to keep units on the market for tenants

The provincial government has capped the allowable rent increase to 3.5% for 2024.

Landlords who plan to raise rent in 2024 will need to provide tenants with three months notice using the correct form and following specific rules.

BC’s Minister of Housing, Ravi Kahlon, said costs are increasing for landlords and tenants. The need for affordable housing well documented, but many property owners are facing higher costs for repairs, financing and maintenance. The province claims the 3,5% cap will keep people housed while making sure rental units stay on the market.

The rent increase cap does not apply to commercial tenancies, non-profit housing with rent geared to income, co-op housing and some assisted-living facilities.

Stats show housing supply down from a decade ago

The latest sales figures show a slight increase in the number of homes for sale, though the demand for housing continues to affect the cost of living in our region.

According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, there were 2,490 listings at the end of August. That’s up 2.9% from the previous month and higher than the 2,137 homes listed in August 2022.

“The focus in our market and by all levels of government needs to be on opening up more supply,” VREB chair Graden Sol said in a news release. “Our inventory levels, though up from last year, are still too low to support a well-balanced market. A decade ago, we saw over 5,000 active listings in August.”

Sol noted that many listings were for single family homes, which are at the top of the residential market.

“Missing middle homes, such as townhomes and condos represented only 37.1% of listings for sale,” Sol said. “Townhomes, which in my experience are what a lot of families hope to purchase, represented only 9.8% of the residential properties for sale. This imbalance in the mix of housing options means there is the potential for more price pressure on these types of properties because demand is concentrated at more attainable price points.”

The benchmark value for a single family home in August was $1,323,900. That ‘s up $5,100 from July but down $3,800 from last summer.

Bank of Canada hits pause on rates as economy slows

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it was holding its interest rate at 5%, as expected. The next announcement is Oct. 25.

The Bank’s Governing Council said there are signs that supply is catching up to demand, and it is still assessing how previous rate hikes are affecting the economy.

“However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed,” said the news release issued by the bank.

The pause comes as political pressure increases to stop raising rates, though the Bank has been clear it’s committed to restoring price stability for Canadians and does not make decisions based on government requests.

“I know a lot of our members are affected by increasing costs caused by inflation and higher interest rates,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “It’s not an easy time, but we’re also seeing investments in more efficient operations and a focus on sustainability that will make our community more resilient in the long run.”

Harbour Authority celebrates 10 millionth passengers

Two couples stepped off a cruise ship this morning at Ogden Point to a little more fanfare than they probably expected. The passengers were the 10 millionth to arrive via cruise ship, and were welcomed by City of Victoria mayor Marianne Alto and other local dignitaries.

“We’ve been married for 14 years, and we came on this trip to renew our vow,” Emma Lonergan, one of the lucky passengers, said in a new release from the Greater Victoria Harbour Authority. The first cruise ship passengers arrived in 1969.

“Cruise supports the region’s visitor economy and creates jobs that support Victoria’s economic recovery,” GVHA CEO Robert Lewis-Manning said. “Engineers, entrepreneurs, accountants, mechanics and others are employed due to cruise tourism in Victoria, with salaries totaling more than $40 million annually.”

The GVHA said cruise visitors and crew contribute $56 million annually to Greater Victoria’s economy, while cruise lines spend $84 million on warehousing, ship agents, repairs and maintenance, port fees and docking services.

Picture

Lindsay Gaunt (Director of Cruise Development, GVHA); Robert Lewis-Manning (CEO, GVHA); passengers Ryan and Rebecca Fairchild; Darlene Hollstein (GM, Bay Centre & Destination Greater Victoria Board Chair); passengers Emma, Liam and Ava Lonergan; Marianne Alto (Victoria Mayor); Kevin Boag (Hotel General Manager, Queen Elizabeth, Cunard).

Inflation expectations add to economic uncertainty

Inflation is running hot in Canada, though the relationship between higher prices and the likelihood of the Bank of Canada raising rates is “complicated.” The rate was 3.3% in July compared to 2.8% in June. Some of the higher costs are directly related to interest rates, which make some mortgages and loans more expensive and impacts renters as well as homeowners. The summer heat also caused energy demand to soar, and the war in the Ukraine continues to impact food prices worldwide.

The Bank of Canada has been clear that tamping down inflation remains its priority. That means another raise in interest rates remains on the table next month. However, the Conference Board of Canada reports that inflation could be feeding on itself as consumers and businesses have come to expect prices to keep rising.

How is your organization dealing with cost uncertainty? Share your stories or advice for other businesses at communications@victoriachamber.ca.