Inflation shows its stubborn side with bump in May

Inflation rose 2.9% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.7% rise in April.

The increase came as a surprise for many economists who are watching for the Consumer Price Index to return to the 2% target, which the Bank of Canada considers to be sustainable inflation.

Statistics Canada said May’s increase was caused by higher prices for services, specifically cellular services, rent and air fares.

“The increase in services inflation is not helpful, especially as wage growth is elevated. The risk of a strong rebound in the housing market hasn’t materialized yet, but slowing shelter inflation is welcome news,” Canadian Chamber Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua said. “Our consumer spending tracker is showing growth presenting a risk that demand is more robust. Odds of a cut in July are lower and still depend on whether the economy is weaker than the Bank’s recent forecast. Governing Council continues to be heavily data dependent, and this reversal will support their restrictive bias. The Bank will want to take a slow and measured approach, especially with inflation accelerating.”

The Consumer Price Index for June will be released on July 16, ahead of the next interest rate decision on July 24.

YYJ working to improve services for travellers

Air travel is vital for business and essential for our region’s visitor economy. To make sure our region’s airport continues to overachieve, the Victoria Airport Authority is conducting a survey to check-in with stakeholders.

The survey consists of a variety of statements along 12 critical variables, and can be saved to complete in multiple sessions.

Responses are confidential, and will help the airport’s team better understand how to serve the community.

Recognizing international credentials makes sense

The International Credentials Recognition Act comes into effect July 1, requiring regulatory bodies to reduce red tape in 29 professions and make it easier for qualified professionals to have credentials recognized, no matter where they were trained.

A major change is eliminating the catch-22 that required someone to have work experience in Canada even though they couldn’t work in Canada because of the lack of Canadian work experience.

The professions include engineers, social workers, veterinarians, paramedics, early childhood educators, teachers, biologists, land surveyors, architects and more.

“The Chamber continues to call for changes to credentials to allow more trained professionals to do the work they have been trained to do,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “We need a skilled labour force and these changes make sense.”

Lessons of past can help us improve future economy

Canada’s economy made a significant shift last month when the Bank of Canada dropped its interest rate for the first time in four years. Now the Bank’s governor is saying he and his central bank peers are navigating a new world.

“We’ve also learned some lessons from the post-pandemic inflation, and we will take these to heart,” Tiff Macklem told the International Economic Forum of the Americas on June 12. “But the challenges of the future are rarely the same as those of the past. Supply shocks are more likely in the future. New technologies not only have the potential to increase prosperity but also to disrupt. Interest rates may be easing in many economies, but global interest rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. The new normal won’t be the old normal. And if we’re not going back, we’ll all need to adjust.”

Macklem said supply-side economics, inflation as a common enemy and public trust in the banking system are the biggest lessons learned from the past four years.

The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for July 24.

Canadian business optimism improving, survey finds

The Business Expectations Index has moved into positive territory for the first time in a year. The index rose 2.7 points in the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter, led by an improved outlook for sales.

Some of the key findings include:

  • Businesses expect employment to grow as labour market conditions continue to find a balance between supply and demand.
  • Eleven of 16 sectors are improving with finance and insurance leading the pack, followed by construction.
  • However, agriculture, information and culture, and transportation are contracting.
  • Firms with 1 to 4 employees say they are are stabilizing, though medium- and large-sized firms (100 or more employees) continue to be much more optimistic.
  • Among underrepresented groups, visible minorities are the most optimistic, while LGBTQ2+ and women business owners are more pessimistic.

Saanich approves 24-storey tower at Uptown

A new tower that will create a notable landmark for people entering Greater Victoria’s core has been approved by District of Saanich council.

The 24-storey apartment building will house 318 rental units on the corner of Carey Road and Ravine Way. A residential building on the site was part of the original proposal for Uptown. The new building will also include commercial space and cycling amenities.

Saanch has a long-range vision for transforming the neighbourhood into a central hub that will become the heart of the municipality.

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Two tales emerging about downtown: DVBA report

There are two stories being told about downtown Victoria, says a new analysis released this morning by the Downtown Victoria Business Association.

With 5% more business licences issued, and tourism and industry thriving, the DVBA’s 2024 Annual Report says the numbers show the region’s downtown is enjoying economic growth. However, there is also a growing sense of unease — a survey found almost 20% of businesses believe downtown is failing.

“That is the highest percentage since we began surveying members,” the DVBA report states. “It is alarming.”

More than two thirds of all people who patronize downtown come from within Greater Victoria, which means that the entire region has a role to play in the narrative of this important neighbourhood.

“The Chamber strongly supports downtown and the work of the DVBA and the City of Victoria to make the area vibrant and safe,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “We are a regional chamber but we will continue to call on all levels of government to invest in the infrastructure and services needed in downtown Victoria.”

Bank of Canada drops interest rate for first time in four years

Finally. The weather forecast calls for clear skies and warm days this weekend, the HarbourCats have fireworks planned for Saturday night, after their homeopener on Friday — and the Bank of Canada has taken the initial step to reduce the pain of high interest rates.

For the first time since March 2020, the bank lowered its overnight rate. It’s now 4.75%, down from 5%, and expected to drop further in the months ahead.

“We’ve been hearing from members who have felt squeezed by the high rates and what that has meant for their customers who have been feeling squeezed themselves,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “No one wants inflation to return, but we’re hopeful this move by the bank marks a return to stability needed for businesses to make those investments that help them grow.”

The bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem, was careful not to promise future cuts, but the Conference Board of Canada stated that conditions are right for the rate to fall further.

Real estate market showing signs of spring thaw

The Victoria Real Estate Board released its latest take on the region’s market this week, before the change in interest rates was announced.

“A lot of folks who have been watching the market over recent years may find that now is a good time to sell and buy as market conditions have changed for the better,” VREB Chair Laurie Lidstone said.

A total of 763 properties sold in the region this May, slightly less than the same month last year. There were 3,338 active listings for sale at the end of May, a 52.5 per cent increase from the 2,189 active listings for sale at the end of May 2023.

The benchmark value for a single family home was $1,309,700, up from April’s value of $1,301,800. The benchmark value for a condominium in May 2024 was $569,500, up from the April value of $561,200

Victoria council discusses future of downtown traffic

The Chamber is working to engage with members and our partner organizations to make sure the voice of business is heard on proposals that will impact traffic in downtown Victoria.

The City of Victoria is looking at extending dedicated bus lanes along Douglas Street, potentially reworking the busy corridor to focus on transit. The idea would take more than a year of study before returning to council.

Chamber CEO Bruce Williams told the Times Colonist that making transit more convenient is a good thing. Giving commuters an option other than single occupancy vehicles will help with congestion and emissions.

However, changing downtown streetscapes will require consultation with businesses that could be impacted by changes to traffic patterns and potential loss of parking spaces.

“We don’t want to deter people from going downtown to shop, enjoy a meal or have some fun in the city,” Williams said, noting that any transportation plan for the city needs to consider how convenient it is for people travelling from neighbourhoods outside downtown Victoria.

One proposal — also in the early stages — is to look at developing a new parkade near north Douglas to allow people to park close to downtown and then walk into the compact central core.