Another Postal disruption simply bad for business

The Chamber is calling for a quick resolution to the simmering Canada Post labour dispute. Across the country, many businesses rely on dependable delivery service and, for some, the only option is currently Canada Post.

The Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab shows that supply chains are already facing challenges and any further disruption could make some businesses nonviable.

“Roughly 130,000 Canadian businesses were directly impacted by logistics-related labour disputes last year. Another stoppage — particularly during a fragile economic recovery — risks slowing deliveries, straining e-commerce and delaying critical services like payments and housing approvals,” the Canadian Chamber said. “Continuity matters. Business needs certainty, not another bottleneck.”

In Greater Victoria, we’ve seen first-hand how a postal strike can hurt small businesses and non-profit organizations.

“We know that many organizations still rely on Canada Post for cheques and fundraising. If they can’t rely on this service, they need to find alternatives and that could lead to higher costs or delays, and it certainly isn’t good for maintaining trust in Canada Post” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams told the Times Colonist, noting that “during the last postal strike, Chamber team members drove around the region to pick up and drop off payments and invoices for local businesses.”

On Wednesday, Canada Post gave its latest and “final” offer to the union representing 55,000 of its workers. You can find ongoing updates here:

New lien rules bring BC in line with other provinces

The new Commercial Liens Act comes into force on June 30, affecting how businesses collect debts for services they provide to repair, store or transport goods. The Act replaces a patchwork of outdated laws, which created different rules for different services.

The Personal Property Registry, an online system that tracks legal claims on personal property, will be updated on June 30 to so that commercial liens can be registered. The changes will also make it easier to enforce liens without going to court, which helps businesses get paid and cuts legal costs.

The Act also allows people to keep using their vehicle or equipment to make money and pay off the debt.

The act replaces the Repairers Lien Act, Warehouse Lien Act and Livestock Lien Act. Any existing liens under those acts will continue as commercial liens. The change brings BC closer to the goal of having one set of lien rules across Canada so businesses that provide services in different provinces do not have to keep track of different rules.

Businesses bear burden of loosening sick day rules

A cost to employers rooted in the pandemic is now further ingrained in law after the provincial government moved to ban the requirement for doctor’s notes when employees take sick days.

“Businesses would have liked to have had more of a say on this policy,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “It’s one thing for the public sector to make this a requirement for its employees, but to force it on the private sector overlooks a lot of concerns we hear from members.”

Organizations understand the benefit of supporting their workers, especially in Greater Victoria with one of the lowest unemployment rates in Canada. During the pandemic, employers went to great lengths to support staff who were ill as well as to keep workers safe from infection. However, legislating paid sick days is a cost that is not covered by government. This additional burden on business adds up, especially at time when many organizations are facing lower margins.

“Most Chamber members I talk to have great relationships with their staff and go out of their way to help when needed,” Williams said. “But many are rightfully concerned that this change will create confusion and could incentivize abuse of the rules and potentially force employers to provide more paid days off work.”

Saanich and Victoria merger is the right thing to do

Better governance from fewer governments has long been a rallying cry within the halls of the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce. On April 5, our region took the first step toward achieving that goal.

The Victoria-Saanich Citizens’ Assembly released its findings seven years after the process took root in 2018. The 48-member assembly is recommending that Greater Victoria’s two largest municipalities merge.

“This is a major win for The Chamber. We’ve literally been advocating for this since the mid-20th Century,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “When we were packing up to move our office, we found binders with reams of paperwork calling for amalgamation over the decades.”

The Chamber was an early voice for using the Citizens’ Assembly process as a practical method for initiating amalgamation. And whenever the process stalled along the way, The Chamber was quick to nudge it forward.

The next step will be for the City of Victoria and District of Saanich to review the consensus reached by the Assembly.

“Both municipal councils have committed to receiving the Assembly’s final report and deliberating on its recommendations,” the report stated. “If they decide to endorse the Assembly’s recommendation for a public referendum on amalgamation, they will work with the Province of British Columbia to initiate it, likely to coincide with the next municipal elections in 2026.”

Women in Business report finds steady, slow progress

The 2025 Women in Business report by Doane Grant Thornton is now available.

The annual report promotes gender equality, tracks progress, identifies challenges and informs strategies for fostering a more inclusive and equitable business environment — ultimately leading to better business outcomes.

“In Canada, 34.7% of women hold senior management positions in small- and medium-sized businesses. It’s steady progress but still a significant distance to achieve parity,” Doane Grant Thornton stated. “It could take another 25 years for women to achieve equal representation in top executive roles, without accelerated change.”

The report also looks at external and internal challenges that affect leadership teams in mid-market businesses, which Doane Grant Thornton said “account for 98% of employer businesses in Canada, and 90% of businesses and two-thirds of jobs worldwide.”

Whoa Premier! Proposed power grab needs a rethink

The Chamber takes pride in working well with any government, regardless of their political stripes. However, there are times when decisions are announced that leave us shaking our heads. The latest, or at least most egregious, was the surprise introduction of Bill 7 last Friday.

BC Premier David Eby claimed the legislation is needed in order for the province to respond to the tradewar with the US. The proposed law has been derided as the Henry VIII clause because it would give the Premier’s Office a vast overreach in its powers.

“Businesses are anxious enough without our own province introducing something that many see as autocratic,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “We’ve reached out to partner organizations around the Province to figure out a response. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail and the province will step back from this legislation.”

Bill 7, if passed, would give Eby broad powers without the need to be accountable to the elected legislature.

Shifting cruise shuttle stop will help area businesses

The Chamber helped advocate for a small change that will have a big benefit for many downtown businesses. After explaining the concerns of having cruise ship shuttles stop short of Government Street’s retail core, the party’s involved agreed to shift to the 900 block.

The change takes place April 4. It required the approval of City of Victoria staff, the Greater Victoria Harbour Authority and Pacific Northwest Transportation Services.

“We heard concerns from merchants that the buses were letting cruise ship passengers off before they could discover Government Street to its fullest,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “Instead of enjoying the area’s shops, cafes and restaurants, it seems passengers were staying in the area they were dropped off. We worked alongside Destination Greater Victoria and the Downtown Victoria Business Association to address this challenge.”

The new stop was chosen for safety and logistics, as well as its benefit to downtown businesses. About 160,000 cruise passengers used the shuttle service last year, while other passengers chose organized tours or other methods to get into the city.

Eight predictions for Canada’s economy in 2025

No one knows what the future holds, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a shot at forecasting what’s to come. Here, with the help of the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, are Chief Economist Stephen Tapp’s eight predictions for the economy. Note that the following list is edited and condensed for space. Read the full article here.

1. Affordability will remain a key consumer and political concern

A big story in 2024 was that inflation was tamed faster than expected — the “soft-ish landing” few economists thought possible. But there are no victory parties planned. Prices are up almost 16% since 2020, and even more, for some essential items such as food and shelter. Politicians will keep searching for policy solutions ahead of the upcoming federal election.

2. Work stoppages will remain elevated

Take rising unit labour costs for businesses, add in workers’ anxieties about affordability and automation, and the result has been a huge increase in work stoppages over the past two years. The last time we had this many work stoppages was almost 40 years ago. Expect this trend to continue in 2025.

3. Immigration will slow down, but the government won’t hit its 2025 target

After pandemic lockdowns lifted, Canada significantly increased immigration, led by non-permanent residents. After a policy U-turn last year, Canada’s population growth is on track to go into reverse in 2025, causing a significant drag on headline economic growth. I would be surprised if, in an election year, the government hits the ambitious target to slow immigration this much, this fast.

4. Trump will weaponize uncertainty and impose tariffs on Canada’s exports

My base case for 2025 is that Trump will impose tariffs on Canadian exports, almost immediately after his inauguration. Our BDL modelling suggests such a move would be disastrous for North America’s economy. However, looking further down the road, I have much more conviction that the economic ties that bind us together will be strong enough that ultimately a trilateral North American trade pact will continue after Trump’s second term ends.

5. Bank of Canada will continue cutting rates and the dollar will depreciate further

The Bank cut rates at its last five meetings of 2024, bringing its policy rate down from 5% to 3.25%. Financial markets have priced in a few more rate cuts, bottoming out around 2.6%. If the tariff threat is realized, short-term Canadian interest rates need to go much lower to support activity. Given a diverging outlook for monetary policy relative to the US, the Canadian dollar would have further to fall, which will partially cushion the blow, but that will raise import prices and make Canadians rethink their travel plans to the US this year.

6. Canadian trade will initially outperform expectations

The unfortunate experience of steel and aluminum tariffs in Trump’s first term offer some guidance. There was an initial period when businesses “stockpiled” inventories before the tariffs came into force. We expect a similar dynamic this time around.

As such, I expect Canadian exports to outperform expectations, at least very early in 2025, as US importers rush to avoid potential tariffs.

7. Housing prices will rise again

With lower borrowing costs, combined with new mortgage rules to extend amortizations, along with the painfully slow process to raise housing supply, I expect average home prices in Canada to rise in 2025, causing more concern for first-time home buyers. New record highs in the next few years shouldn’t be ruled out.

8. Canadian productivity will be less awful

I’ll end with a mildly optimistic outlook for Canada’s productivity.

Canadians are working harder, not smarter. We’re putting in more hours. Unfortunately, output growth isn’t keeping pace. The result is less output produced per hour. Here’s hoping that this year, with lower borrowing costs, businesses and workers will ambitiously invest in new technologies to uncover better, faster and cheaper ways to create value. It’s desperately needed and something everyone can raise a glass to!

Region’s ‘living wage’ jumps 5.4% from one year ago

Even with inflation tamed, there is a noticeable increase in the cost of living in Greater Victoria. The shift is evident in the latest report from the Community Social Planning Council of Greater Victoria.

The report says the living wage in our region is $26.78 — 5.4% more than last year.

The Greater Victoria living wage calculation is based on the needs of two-parent families with young children. However, it is also meant to support all workers, so young adults are not discouraged from having children due to low wages, and older workers have additional income as they age.

“Some preliminary estimates we have produced suggest that the living wage may not be sufficient to support single parents and single individuals in Greater Victoria. In other communities, this is not the case, and we want to explore this in more detail in the future,” CSPC Executive Director Shelley Cook said in a media release.

Trump takes to social media to threaten huge tariffs

There’s the economy, and then there’s the attention economy. The incoming US President has seized the spotlight with his comments on his Truth Social platform calling for a 25% tariff on products from Canada.

The damage such a move would do to the Canadian and US economies makes this pronouncement shocking, which is likely what Donald Trump intended.

Chamber Board Chair Kris Wirk spoke to CFAX this morning about the issue, noting that the uncertainty is not helpful regardless of whether any tariffs are introduced.

Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said it’s easy for Trump to be loud on social media, but there has already been a tremendous amount of work behind the scenes to mitigate the damage tariffs would cause.

“We need to remember that this is a public relations tactic and probably much different than what will occur in reality,” Williams said. “Our national Chamber network has built strong relationships with states along Canada’s border. Their leaders understand the trade relationship with Canada and its importance to American jobs, factories and consumers. They’ll bring a strong voice to any negotiations.”

Speaking of the Canadian Chamber, new President and CEO Candace Laing has issued a statement condemning any attempt to hurt Canada’s economy.

“Being America’s ‘nice neighbour’ won’t get us anywhere in this situation. President-elect Trump’s intention to impose 25% tariffs signals that the U.S.-Canada trade relationship is no longer about mutual benefit. To him, it’s about winners and losers—with Canada on the losing end,” Laing said. “We’re facing a significant shift in the relationship between long-standing allies. Canada’s signature approach needs to evolve: we must be prepared to take a couple of punches if we’re going to stake out our position. It’s time to trade ‘sorry’ for ‘sorry, not sorry.’”