Tight timeline as federal election set for April 28

With the writ dropped on a federal election set for April 28, voters have a tight timeline to learn who their local candidates are and what their parties are promising.

How can the Chamber help our members, the community and democracy? Let us know your thoughts on what information you want before going to the ballot box.

Send your suggestions to communications@victoriachamber.ca.

On a national level, the Canadian Chamber has issued a statement on how the next government can help business, including following up on free trade between provinces, getting on with tax reform and investing in infrastructure.

“Canadians are privileged to live and work in an open, vibrant and democratic country. … The ongoing tensions with the US have created a volatile environment, making it harder for businesses and families to plan ahead. Strong public programs, like healthcare, retirement benefits, and a robust military, rely on a thriving business sector and tax revenue from Canadian individuals and businesses. Right now, that foundation is at risk,” Canadian Chamber CEO Candace Laing said. “Regardless of who wins, Canada needs a united strategy to reduce dependence on US trade and build a resilient, future-ready economy where all Canadians can thrive and be optimistic about the future. The next federal government needs to hit the ground running, ready to pursue a mandate that will guarantee Canada’s economic sovereignty and security, ensuring we are never left this vulnerable again.

Consumers get break as BC eliminating carbon tax April 1

Energy costs are set to go down starting April 1 as the province announced yesterday it will make good on its promise to eliminate the consumer carbon tax after the federal government promised to do the same.

BC’s tax adds about 17 cents per litre at the gas pump, and 15 cents per cubic metre of natural gas.

“The Province will continue to act on the commitment to battle climate change by ensuring people in British Columbia have affordable options to make sustainable choices and by encouraging industry to innovate,” the BC Ministry of Finance said in a statement.

Eliminating the tax will help businesses and individuals facing increasing costs and economic uncertainty due to the threats of tariffs and tradewar with the US.

The latest news on the tradewar is a 25% tariff on the auto industry imposed today. The action is expected to increase the cost of vehicles and cause generational chaos to automakers on both sides of the border.

The national Chamber network continues to work on mitigating the threat of tariffs. This week, the Canadian Chamber released a report on US cities that are the most export-dependent on Canada.

Chamber prepping for pro-business campaign

With a federal election expected to be called as soon as this Sunday, the Canadian Chamber is working on a toolkit that will make sure all political parties understand what businesses need.

The main message is that businesses are under threat. We need the next government to commit to going all-in on Canada. That means delivering on the promise of free trade between provinces, improving existing trade infrastructure and cutting red tape and taxes.

Canada could gain as much as 4% of our GDP by opening up east to west trade. We also require more investment in roads, rail, airports, pipelines and ports in order to grow our economy and fulfill our potential. And, perhaps most timely, there must be immediate relief from regulatory burdens and suffocating tax structures that constrict our private sector. We need to compete internationally and increase the size of our economy in order to sustainably fund the social programs that help improve everyone’s quality of life.

Help wanted? Workers caught in TFW rule changes

The Chamber continues to work to address ill-advised changes to Canada’s Temporary Foreign Workers program. We’ve met with Victoria’s Member of Parliament and heard from several Chamber members about the damaging impact this blanket legislation is causing in our region.

Canadian Tire Hillside has reached out to ask for help finding work for four of their former staffers who are looking for employers able to offer a position with a Labour Market Impact Assessment.

“The workers are well qualified, highly experienced professionals with international and Canadian experience. We would be retaining these top-performing team members, however, recent changes to our country’s Temporary Foreign Worker program will unfortunately not permit it,” Canadian Tire said in an email to The Chamber.

The workers live in our region and have housing. They want to continue to be long-term contributing members of the community. The workers have experience in retail, customer service and warehouse work and can start in early summer — once they receive necessary approvals.

To learn more about hiring these potential team members and applying for LMIAs, contact Ron Heal at ron@cantire365.com.

Blanket change to TFW program makes little sense

Recent changeto the rules around Temporary Foreign Workers have caught many businesses by surprise. The program has existed for half a century and has been vital to helping employers fill out their workforce. It’s also proved to be a popular pathway to Canadian citizenship.

The rule changes were driven by shifting political winds that have seen the federal government curtail immigration targets. However, applying the same rules to all regions across the country does not reflect the reality that unemployment rates vary immensely. In Greater Victoria, the rate is often one of the lowest in Canada.

“Losing this source of workers can make the difference in staying viable for some employers,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. “We’ve been meeting with federal government representatives and plan to keep making the case for an exemption for our region.”

If the changes have impacted your business, contact The Chamber at communications@victoriachamber.ca to learn more about our advocacy work.

Fed funding helps GVHA add shore power for ships

Chamber CEO Bruce Williams attended an announcement Tuesday to hear federal Minister of Transport and Internal Trade Anita Anand announce a long-awaited contribution to our region.

The feds are providing $35.5-million for infrastructure projects across BC, including $22.5 million to help the Greater Victoria Harbour Authority advance the Shore Power Project under the Government of Canada’s Green Shipping Corridor Program.

The funds will help with electrifying the deep-water port at The Breakwater District, reducing emissions and supporting long-term economic growth in Greater Victoria.

“Shore Power is a critical first step in electrifying Ogden Point. It will ensure the terminal can provide the necessary power for cruise ships, vessels, and commercial operations like HeliJet, as well as over 30 businesses and future partners,” the GVHA said in a media release. “This initiative is part of a broader effort to establish a Green Corridor for cruise travel between Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington. It is central to GVHA’s electrification plan for the deep-water port and upland port operations. Converting to renewable energy sources will increase the port’s self-sufficiency and strengthen its climate resilience.”

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New DND homes a win for Chamber and economy

Advocacy works. The latest win for The Chamber is news that the federal government is moving to address our 2024 policy resolution “Adding to Canada’s Housing Supply by Strengthening Canada’s Military Through Housing on Military Bases.”

In January, the government announced the construction of 668 new residential housing units and the renovation of more than 600 existing units across various Canadian bases within the next five years. These homes will include multi-unit buildings, row houses and semi-detached homes to better support military personnel. The construction of the new RHUs is part of a broader $1.4 billion investment over 20 years for housing projects to support the men and women of the CAF under Canada’s renewed defence policy, Our North, Strong and Free.

The Chamber’s policy resolution passed unanimously last year at the annual convention of the national chamber network.

Feds announce summit to spark Canadian economy

The federal government announced today that it will hold a Canada-US Economic Summit on Feb. 7.

The summit will bring together Canadian leaders in trade, business, public policy and organized labour. Their aim will be to make it easier to build and trade within Canada — the ninth-largest economy in the world — as well as to diversify export markets and increase productivity.

“These are all areas our Chamber network has been calling for and we will keep calling for until this investment in our communities is realized,” Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said.

Eight predictions for Canada’s economy in 2025

No one knows what the future holds, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a shot at forecasting what’s to come. Here, with the help of the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, are Chief Economist Stephen Tapp’s eight predictions for the economy. Note that the following list is edited and condensed for space. Read the full article here.

1. Affordability will remain a key consumer and political concern

A big story in 2024 was that inflation was tamed faster than expected — the “soft-ish landing” few economists thought possible. But there are no victory parties planned. Prices are up almost 16% since 2020, and even more, for some essential items such as food and shelter. Politicians will keep searching for policy solutions ahead of the upcoming federal election.

2. Work stoppages will remain elevated

Take rising unit labour costs for businesses, add in workers’ anxieties about affordability and automation, and the result has been a huge increase in work stoppages over the past two years. The last time we had this many work stoppages was almost 40 years ago. Expect this trend to continue in 2025.

3. Immigration will slow down, but the government won’t hit its 2025 target

After pandemic lockdowns lifted, Canada significantly increased immigration, led by non-permanent residents. After a policy U-turn last year, Canada’s population growth is on track to go into reverse in 2025, causing a significant drag on headline economic growth. I would be surprised if, in an election year, the government hits the ambitious target to slow immigration this much, this fast.

4. Trump will weaponize uncertainty and impose tariffs on Canada’s exports

My base case for 2025 is that Trump will impose tariffs on Canadian exports, almost immediately after his inauguration. Our BDL modelling suggests such a move would be disastrous for North America’s economy. However, looking further down the road, I have much more conviction that the economic ties that bind us together will be strong enough that ultimately a trilateral North American trade pact will continue after Trump’s second term ends.

5. Bank of Canada will continue cutting rates and the dollar will depreciate further

The Bank cut rates at its last five meetings of 2024, bringing its policy rate down from 5% to 3.25%. Financial markets have priced in a few more rate cuts, bottoming out around 2.6%. If the tariff threat is realized, short-term Canadian interest rates need to go much lower to support activity. Given a diverging outlook for monetary policy relative to the US, the Canadian dollar would have further to fall, which will partially cushion the blow, but that will raise import prices and make Canadians rethink their travel plans to the US this year.

6. Canadian trade will initially outperform expectations

The unfortunate experience of steel and aluminum tariffs in Trump’s first term offer some guidance. There was an initial period when businesses “stockpiled” inventories before the tariffs came into force. We expect a similar dynamic this time around.

As such, I expect Canadian exports to outperform expectations, at least very early in 2025, as US importers rush to avoid potential tariffs.

7. Housing prices will rise again

With lower borrowing costs, combined with new mortgage rules to extend amortizations, along with the painfully slow process to raise housing supply, I expect average home prices in Canada to rise in 2025, causing more concern for first-time home buyers. New record highs in the next few years shouldn’t be ruled out.

8. Canadian productivity will be less awful

I’ll end with a mildly optimistic outlook for Canada’s productivity.

Canadians are working harder, not smarter. We’re putting in more hours. Unfortunately, output growth isn’t keeping pace. The result is less output produced per hour. Here’s hoping that this year, with lower borrowing costs, businesses and workers will ambitiously invest in new technologies to uncover better, faster and cheaper ways to create value. It’s desperately needed and something everyone can raise a glass to!

Beyond the news headlines, $3.6B in Canada/US trade

It’s hard to have a conversation these days that doesn’t veer into Canada/US relations. Looking past the political chirps, here are some of the numbers behind what’s at stake for business.

The Chamber’s national network has introduced the Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker — to illustrate the ties between our two economies.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher,” Canadian Chamber President and CEO Candace Laing said. “Tariffs and trade barriers jeopardize jobs, industries and families across both sides of the border. The Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker gives us the tools to push back with facts, showing just how much we all stand to lose when imposing taxes on prosperity.”

Every day, $3.6 billion in goods crosses the Canada-U.S. border, fueling a $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship. This partnership supports:

  • 1.4 million US jobs tied to Canadian exports.
  • 2.3 million Canadian jobs tied to US exports.
  • 50% of bilateral goods trade between related companies, underscoring the depth of integration between our economies.

A 25% tariff could shrink Canada’s GDP by 2.6%, costing Canadian households an average of $1,900 annually. For the US, this would mean a 1.6% GDP drop, with families losing $1,300 per year. Beyond the economic impact, tariffs would disrupt industries like automotive, agriculture, and energy, making everything from groceries to cars more expensive.